Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 52319.291151 55469.630542 58628.286379 62030.303536 65588.289438 69196.929778 73131.044680
2024-10-20 46868.903417 51640.521093 56568.668766 62030.439873 67905.738724 74027.430038 80879.632574
2024-10-27 42851.661503 48682.423722 54847.166868 61833.510751 69513.578770 77681.459227 87007.196505
2024-11-03 40577.965736 47280.510410 54504.630930 62841.346415 72167.266525 82248.970137 93941.681049
2024-11-10 38594.904539 45984.543159 54084.848232 63581.339524 74365.869283 86188.633953 100084.476000
2024-11-17 36695.791080 44623.548850 53448.416871 63942.965373 76023.084934 89432.284696 105379.706460
2024-11-24 34815.749795 43156.075553 52574.586491 63924.289796 77152.501397 92004.698848 109858.970339
2024-12-01 33333.194005 42058.398468 52043.150380 64222.126966 78578.948470 94865.965485 114635.576805
2024-12-08 31854.804131 40883.282336 51346.938344 64258.065197 79642.038782 97264.770709 118850.236244
2024-12-15 30994.988012 40399.440739 51424.598202 65170.394679 81706.807129 100814.357977 124407.125072
2024-12-22 29639.024289 39246.869840 50642.805346 65000.887532 82441.678261 102769.917512 128071.927433
2024-12-29 29012.403576 38959.565941 50880.592121 66039.825767 84610.463155 106420.197660 133756.024683
2025-01-05 28118.096571 38316.178086 50670.336128 66531.797723 86133.420472 109333.979050 138621.393663
2025-01-12 27061.101132 37427.257645 50122.383843 66579.432910 87095.741893 111567.982211 142680.293069
2025-01-19 25957.170561 36434.747222 49405.574024 66380.737486 87725.625500 113380.183388 146221.646706
2025-01-26 25505.494207 36264.390511 49708.914279 67449.296538 89922.024237 117108.499938 152117.072725
2025-02-02 24957.182754 35942.877677 49799.335563 68232.710208 91754.242158 120392.064176 157483.426187
2025-02-09 24267.937858 35407.668435 49591.405508 68615.402118 93068.788447 123032.015115 162064.240862
2025-02-16 23446.915425 34666.538540 49089.545436 68595.661060 93854.447784 125004.013858 165816.633758
2025-02-23 22808.190100 34148.592149 48859.439615 68910.764814 95055.718385 127492.165459 170220.038915
2025-03-02 22090.972681 33498.601771 48432.660964 68948.785693 95885.909282 129506.162273 174031.439224
2025-03-09 21773.917848 33388.036766 48714.401612 69913.887370 97916.074287 133047.272149 179789.074530
2025-03-16 21032.910685 32662.404606 48148.478161 69734.586937 98440.687629 134664.738136 183110.055831